Demand and forecasting
Seven forecasting methods compete per SKU on a rolling-origin backtest and the winner is the one shown. Accuracy is measured out of sample, so every point on the actual-versus-forecast line was produced by a model that had not seen it.
Forecast accuracy
67.7%
volume-weighted, out of sample
Forecast bias
-10.1%
median SKU; negative means under-forecast
Units shipped
2,397,686
over 78 weeks of history
Fill rate
98.8%
demand met from stock on the week it was asked for
Critical items
44
A-class value on Y or Z variability
420 SKUs; the picker lists the 120 fastest movers.
Actual against forecast
The forecast line is out of sample: at each point the model had seen only the weeks to its left. The dashed continuation past the last actual is the forward forecast, thirteen weeks of it.
Over the backtest window, the whole network was forecast to 86.7% accuracy with a bias of -12.3%.
Which model won, and how often
Seven methods compete per SKU on a rolling-origin backtest, scored on mean absolute scaled error. A four-week moving average winning on a chunk of the catalogue is the expected result on real demand, not a failure of the exercise.
Where the forecast leans
Bias is signed error over actual: positive means over-forecast. Weeks are shown rather than SKUs because bias that shows up on the same weeks for everything is a calendar problem, and bias scattered across SKUs is a model problem.
Worst week: 2026-07-11 at -42.8%. Runs of same-signed bars on adjacent weeks are a promotional or event calendar the models were never given, not a modelling error.
MODEL ASSURANCE
Forecast quality where inventory policy is applied
Network accuracy can hide weak, volatile segments. This scorecard reconciles out-of-sample forecast evidence to each ABC-XYZ policy cell and flags accuracy or bias for review.
| Value class | Variability | SKUs | Forecast units / wk | Weighted accuracy | Median MASE | Median bias | P90 |bias| | Control status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| A | X | 43 | 14,887 | 75.6% | 0.84 | -9.1% | 16.4% | WITHIN PORTFOLIO GUARDRAIL |
| A | Y | 39 | 8,904 | 60.4% | 1.14 | -22.0% | 36.7% | REVIEW ACCURACY |
| A | Z | 5 | 975 | 48.2% | 1.28 | -25.6% | 54.9% | REVIEW ACCURACY |
| B | X | 49 | 4,459 | 71.8% | 0.74 | -6.6% | 17.7% | WITHIN PORTFOLIO GUARDRAIL |
| B | Y | 54 | 2,687 | 61.2% | 0.86 | -13.2% | 28.1% | REVIEW ACCURACY |
| B | Z | 5 | 192 | 43.8% | 0.99 | -29.2% | 51.5% | REVIEW ACCURACY |
| C | X | 54 | 1,876 | 69.8% | 0.62 | -7.2% | 18.2% | REVIEW ACCURACY |
| C | Y | 107 | 2,349 | 56.1% | 0.74 | -10.8% | 26.8% | REVIEW ACCURACY |
| C | Z | 64 | 154 | 32.3% | 0.00 | +18.5% | 191.2% | REVIEW ACCURACY |
Guardrails are portfolio review thresholds, not approved operating policy. A flagged segment requires diagnosis before forecast overrides or inventory changes.
Seasonality by department
Monthly index, mean 1.0 within each department.
Forecast quality by SKU
| SKU | Item | ABC | XYZ | Wk demand | Wk forecast | Model | Accuracy | Bias |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| B000378 | Ironpine Everyday Outerwear 4-Pack | A | X | 2,013.7 | 2,326.3 | Seasonal naive (52w) | 79.2% | -0.4% |
| B000007 | Tidewater Lightweight Cat Food Single | A | X | 1,775.7 | 1,611.5 | Croston / SBA (intermittent) | 81.3% | -3.8% |
| B000129 | Aurelia Pro Outerwear Single | A | X | 1,616.4 | 1,522.7 | Exponential smoothing | 76.8% | -10.3% |
| B000257 | Larkspur Lightweight Habitat 4-Pack | A | X | 1,342.4 | 1,593.5 | Seasonal naive (52w) | 71.8% | -21.2% |
| B000010 | Aurelia Premium Tablet 4-Pack | A | Y | 911.9 | 911.9 | 13-week moving average | 55.5% | -32.8% |
| B000017 | Rivermont Heritage Basic Single | A | Y | 822.0 | 907.8 | Seasonal naive (52w) | 76.1% | -13.6% |
| B000122 | Meridian Bay Pro Habitat 6-Pack | A | Y | 634.5 | 941.9 | Damped trend (Holt) | 60.1% | -36.5% |
| B000215 | Fenwick Value Toys & Treat 2-Pack | A | X | 474.3 | 515.2 | Damped trend (Holt) | 71.4% | -12.2% |
| B000202 | Fenwick Everyday Diapering 6-Pack | A | X | 456.3 | 460.8 | Seasonal naive (52w) | 76.8% | -10.5% |
| B000190 | Larkspur Insulated Water Sport 2-Pack | A | Z | 451.6 | 443.8 | Seasonal naive (52w) | 50.3% | -25.6% |
| B000108 | Rivermont Essential Tableware 6-Pack | A | X | 446.5 | 446.5 | 13-week moving average | 72.3% | -5.1% |
| B000392 | Meridian Bay Everyday Outdoor Play Single | A | Y | 387.3 | 244.0 | Naive (last week) | 71.7% | -15.8% |
| B000178 | Stonebrook Traveller Oral Care 2-Pack | A | Y | 374.6 | 160.0 | Naive (last week) | 65.6% | -21.0% |
| B000271 | Larkspur Traveller Fitnes 4-Pack | A | Y | 357.3 | 56.0 | Naive (last week) | 35.4% | -8.8% |
| B000082 | Tidewater Stackable Activewear 4-Pack | A | X | 352.8 | 378.8 | 4-week moving average | 70.8% | -2.3% |
| B000182 | Larkspur Deluxe Grooming Single | A | X | 345.1 | 387.2 | Seasonal naive (52w) | 81.3% | -8.9% |
| B000404 | Harbourline Premium Coffee & Tea 2-Pack | B | X | 333.9 | 231.0 | Naive (last week) | 56.1% | -29.6% |
| B000056 | Ashgrove Insulated Headphone 12-Pack | A | X | 333.6 | 333.6 | 13-week moving average | 67.1% | -9.9% |
| B000382 | Tidewater Slimline Oral Care Single | A | X | 330.0 | 402.3 | Seasonal naive (52w) | 79.1% | -1.6% |
| B000041 | Harbourline Heritage Hair Care Bulk Case | A | Y | 322.2 | 623.9 | Damped trend (Holt) | 46.9% | -39.5% |
| B000153 | Tidewater Lightweight Cycling Single | A | X | 313.5 | 282.5 | Seasonal naive (52w) | 74.4% | -10.4% |
| B000175 | Meridian Bay Insulated Desk Accessorie 4-Pack | A | X | 305.8 | 359.0 | Naive (last week) | 75.4% | -16.0% |
| B000262 | Larkspur Traveller Portable Power 2-Pack | A | X | 302.8 | 505.1 | Seasonal naive (52w) | 70.0% | -8.8% |
| B000084 | Coppermill Essential Tableware 6-Pack | A | Y | 292.2 | 296.0 | Naive (last week) | 43.8% | -56.2% |
| B000019 | Meridian Bay Insulated Snack 6-Pack | A | X | 287.3 | 305.9 | Seasonal naive (52w) | 79.1% | -7.1% |
| B000156 | Larkspur Pro Oral Care Single | A | Y | 265.7 | 293.1 | Seasonal naive (52w) | 68.6% | -8.0% |
| B000107 | Ashgrove Heritage Hair Care 4-Pack | B | X | 254.5 | 244.4 | Exponential smoothing | 76.1% | -4.1% |
| B000070 | Fenwick Heavy Duty Small Appliance Single | B | X | 250.6 | 280.6 | Seasonal naive (52w) | 82.3% | -6.9% |
| B000298 | Stonebrook Cordless Small Appliance 12-Pack | A | X | 245.3 | 175.0 | Naive (last week) | 77.6% | -6.0% |
| B000313 | Tidewater Essential Bedding Single | A | X | 241.9 | 272.6 | Seasonal naive (52w) | 77.7% | -8.3% |
| B000128 | Ironpine Premium Personal Device 12-Pack | A | Z | 239.2 | 0.0 | Naive (last week) | 51.8% | +24.4% |
| B000090 | Fenwick Pro Team Sport 4-Pack | A | X | 238.6 | 198.3 | Croston / SBA (intermittent) | 69.1% | -4.1% |
| B000159 | Bellwood Premium Desk Accessorie Single | B | X | 235.3 | 220.0 | Naive (last week) | 79.9% | -14.1% |
| B000283 | Kestrel Premium Dog Food Single | B | X | 234.8 | 234.8 | 13-week moving average | 71.5% | -10.0% |
| B000184 | Kestrel Compact Basic 2-Pack | A | Y | 234.0 | 277.8 | Seasonal naive (52w) | 62.2% | -26.1% |
| B000241 | Meridian Bay Studio Streaming Device Single | A | Y | 232.0 | 232.0 | 13-week moving average | 67.4% | -21.2% |
| B000348 | Tidewater Insulated Desk Accessorie Single | B | Y | 230.1 | 387.4 | Damped trend (Holt) | 60.7% | -21.5% |
| B000134 | Rivermont Everyday Streaming Device 2-Pack | A | X | 221.6 | 221.6 | 13-week moving average | 79.4% | +4.0% |
| B000245 | Larkspur Lightweight Pantry Staple Single | C | X | 219.3 | 227.3 | 4-week moving average | 72.6% | -8.7% |
| B000394 | Northvale Traveller Tableware Single | A | X | 206.5 | 249.0 | Seasonal naive (52w) | 72.5% | -5.0% |
| B000412 | Fenwick Insulated Dog Food Single | B | X | 202.8 | 204.4 | Exponential smoothing | 66.3% | +5.4% |
| B000165 | Aurelia Everyday Puzzle 4-Pack | A | Y | 202.3 | 519.4 | Seasonal naive (52w) | 67.0% | -23.6% |
| B000185 | Ashgrove Value Smart Home Bulk Case | A | Y | 201.1 | 233.5 | Seasonal naive (52w) | 68.4% | -17.0% |
| B000095 | Solstice Row Premium Baking Single | B | X | 195.5 | 100.4 | Damped trend (Holt) | 76.0% | -1.4% |
| B000259 | Aurelia Essential Camping 12-Pack | A | Y | 191.7 | 326.0 | Naive (last week) | 49.6% | -49.8% |
| B000338 | Larkspur Deluxe Snack Single | B | X | 190.8 | 178.5 | Croston / SBA (intermittent) | 64.6% | -20.1% |
| B000003 | Stonebrook Heavy Duty Fitnes 2-Pack | A | Y | 181.2 | 151.0 | Naive (last week) | 50.3% | -23.0% |
| B000034 | Aurelia Everyday Cables & Adapter 4-Pack | A | Y | 180.9 | 264.5 | Seasonal naive (52w) | 59.6% | -27.9% |
| B000067 | Rivermont Everyday Cycling 12-Pack | A | X | 177.5 | 158.5 | Croston / SBA (intermittent) | 68.5% | -9.8% |
| B000414 | Harbourline Premium Cookware Single | A | X | 171.0 | 152.1 | Croston / SBA (intermittent) | 77.0% | -8.5% |
| B000031 | Meridian Bay Slimline Headphone 2-Pack | A | X | 170.2 | 233.0 | Seasonal naive (52w) | 79.5% | -14.9% |
| B000335 | Ashgrove Cordless Streaming Device Single | A | Z | 168.8 | 239.7 | Seasonal naive (52w) | 60.5% | -25.2% |
| B000181 | Northvale Insulated Portable Power Single | A | Z | 167.6 | 158.0 | Naive (last week) | 22.1% | -62.4% |
| B000376 | Ironpine Heavy Duty Tablet 2-Pack | A | X | 164.4 | 164.4 | 13-week moving average | 74.6% | -16.2% |
| B000116 | Aurelia Lightweight Cables & Adapter Single | A | X | 160.6 | 124.0 | Naive (last week) | 72.9% | -5.8% |
| B000379 | Meridian Bay Lightweight Footwear 6-Pack | B | Y | 158.2 | 140.1 | Exponential smoothing | 66.8% | -15.7% |
| B000258 | Ironpine Heavy Duty Skincare Single | B | X | 156.1 | 173.4 | Seasonal naive (52w) | 77.3% | -6.0% |
| B000263 | Solstice Row Cordless Fitnes 2-Pack | A | X | 155.4 | 150.1 | Seasonal naive (52w) | 73.4% | -16.3% |
| B000280 | Calder and Vine Premium Accessorie 4-Pack | A | X | 155.2 | 158.4 | Exponential smoothing | 78.5% | +6.5% |
| B000351 | Bellwood Stackable Snack 2-Pack | B | X | 152.9 | 173.7 | Seasonal naive (52w) | 79.2% | -7.7% |
| B000305 | Aurelia Slimline Figure 4-Pack | B | X | 148.8 | 190.9 | Damped trend (Holt) | 71.1% | -14.0% |
| B000366 | Fenwick Everyday Tablet 4-Pack | A | Y | 143.5 | 137.1 | Croston / SBA (intermittent) | 61.4% | -23.8% |
| B000242 | Stonebrook Cordless Printers & Ink 6-Pack | B | X | 143.4 | 143.4 | 13-week moving average | 69.7% | -17.1% |
| B000375 | Larkspur Traveller Cables & Adapter Single | A | X | 142.0 | 141.8 | Exponential smoothing | 68.7% | -14.1% |
| B000282 | Larkspur Essential Team Sport 2-Pack | A | Y | 141.5 | 141.5 | 13-week moving average | 58.4% | -17.5% |
| B000416 | Northvale Value Figure 4-Pack | A | Z | 136.5 | 134.0 | Naive (last week) | 50.1% | -43.7% |
| B000240 | Kestrel Compact Headphone Single | B | X | 135.0 | 135.0 | 13-week moving average | 74.8% | -6.3% |
| B000290 | Bellwood Traveller Baking Bulk Case | C | X | 134.8 | 118.9 | Croston / SBA (intermittent) | 67.8% | -3.9% |
| B000228 | Fenwick Lightweight Smart Home 2-Pack | A | Y | 126.8 | 203.6 | Seasonal naive (52w) | 65.3% | -22.9% |
| B000357 | Ironpine Value Paper 2-Pack | C | Y | 125.6 | 116.6 | Seasonal naive (52w) | 63.4% | -29.1% |
| B000362 | Kestrel Slimline Basic 4-Pack | A | Y | 121.5 | 125.9 | Exponential smoothing | 68.2% | -17.1% |
| B000008 | Rivermont Insulated Pantry Staple 2-Pack | C | X | 121.2 | 152.7 | Seasonal naive (52w) | 62.8% | -14.9% |
| B000044 | Meridian Bay Everyday Storage & Organisation 4-Pack | A | Y | 118.4 | 118.4 | 13-week moving average | 55.4% | -13.7% |
| B000012 | Kestrel Deluxe Beverage Single | B | X | 117.7 | 73.0 | Naive (last week) | 70.9% | -4.1% |
| B000315 | Harbourline Deluxe Portable Power 2-Pack | A | Y | 116.8 | 116.8 | 13-week moving average | 60.5% | -24.6% |
| B000226 | Larkspur Stackable Bedding 12-Pack | B | X | 115.2 | 115.2 | 13-week moving average | 70.7% | -9.1% |
| B000224 | Tidewater Heavy Duty Diapering 6-Pack | C | Y | 115.0 | 118.4 | Seasonal naive (52w) | 67.4% | -9.8% |
| B000267 | Ashgrove Traveller Basic 12-Pack | A | X | 113.9 | 113.9 | 13-week moving average | 67.8% | +16.4% |
| B000223 | Fenwick Everyday Smart Home 12-Pack | A | X | 112.2 | 89.9 | Croston / SBA (intermittent) | 67.0% | -17.0% |
| B000284 | Solstice Row Essential Team Sport 2-Pack | B | X | 111.9 | 110.2 | Damped trend (Holt) | 61.6% | -10.9% |
| B000047 | Larkspur Compact Smart Home 12-Pack | A | Y | 111.5 | 159.0 | Seasonal naive (52w) | 64.1% | -29.0% |
| B000099 | Northvale Insulated Cables & Adapter 12-Pack | A | Y | 111.4 | 145.0 | Naive (last week) | 38.0% | -37.3% |
| B000066 | Harbourline Premium Diapering Single | A | Y | 108.8 | 118.0 | Naive (last week) | 66.8% | -3.4% |
| B000046 | Ironpine Cordless Activewear 4-Pack | B | Y | 108.6 | 108.6 | 13-week moving average | 61.1% | +8.5% |
| B000160 | Calder and Vine Cordless Headphone 4-Pack | A | Y | 108.4 | 143.9 | Seasonal naive (52w) | 56.4% | -32.1% |
| B000141 | Stonebrook Pro Water Sport 2-Pack | A | X | 106.7 | 106.8 | Seasonal naive (52w) | 74.7% | -22.3% |
| B000102 | Tidewater Studio Dog Food 4-Pack | C | X | 106.4 | 106.4 | 13-week moving average | 76.5% | +2.4% |
| B000339 | Bellwood Traveller Nursery 4-Pack | B | X | 104.4 | 92.5 | Exponential smoothing | 72.0% | -9.8% |
| B000346 | Tidewater Essential Camping 6-Pack | A | X | 103.8 | 102.4 | Exponential smoothing | 79.0% | -6.9% |
| B000304 | Aurelia Insulated Feeding Single | B | Y | 102.8 | 102.8 | 13-week moving average | 59.4% | -15.5% |
| B000312 | Fenwick Insulated Skincare 12-Pack | B | Y | 102.7 | 102.7 | 13-week moving average | 51.7% | -24.6% |
| B000330 | Larkspur Slimline Storage & Organisation Single | A | Y | 96.9 | 116.9 | Seasonal naive (52w) | 63.8% | +5.2% |
| B000210 | Ironpine Everyday Coffee & Tea Single | C | Y | 93.7 | 87.7 | Croston / SBA (intermittent) | 62.8% | -24.4% |
| B000144 | Northvale Slimline Cookware 4-Pack | B | X | 92.5 | 119.3 | Seasonal naive (52w) | 72.5% | +2.6% |
| B000059 | Coppermill Traveller Small Appliance 4-Pack | A | X | 91.5 | 80.7 | Croston / SBA (intermittent) | 72.7% | -3.0% |
| B000089 | Stonebrook Essential Camping Single | A | Y | 91.2 | 105.4 | Seasonal naive (52w) | 70.8% | -21.1% |
| B000126 | Ironpine Premium Vitamin 2-Pack | C | X | 91.2 | 91.2 | 13-week moving average | 73.7% | -12.6% |
| B000024 | Aurelia Stackable Personal Device 2-Pack | B | X | 90.3 | 81.2 | Croston / SBA (intermittent) | 76.2% | -6.5% |
| B000289 | Calder and Vine Deluxe Portable Power 2-Pack | A | Y | 89.6 | 118.7 | Seasonal naive (52w) | 58.6% | -33.8% |
| B000171 | Ironpine Insulated Headphone Single | A | Y | 88.9 | 78.3 | Croston / SBA (intermittent) | 53.1% | -14.0% |
| B000075 | Coppermill Essential Cycling 12-Pack | A | X | 85.7 | 85.7 | 13-week moving average | 69.8% | -15.6% |
| B000216 | Ironpine Value Team Sport Bulk Case | A | X | 85.7 | 82.9 | Seasonal naive (52w) | 78.9% | -14.0% |
| B000325 | Ashgrove Insulated Activewear 4-Pack | B | X | 84.5 | 93.9 | Seasonal naive (52w) | 70.3% | +11.9% |
| B000022 | Meridian Bay Value Figure 4-Pack | B | Y | 83.7 | 83.7 | 13-week moving average | 69.5% | -20.4% |
| B000148 | Tidewater Pro Small Appliance Single | B | Y | 82.8 | 68.0 | Croston / SBA (intermittent) | 64.5% | -5.7% |
| B000253 | Calder and Vine Premium Frozen Meal Single | C | Y | 80.8 | 80.8 | 13-week moving average | 63.9% | -15.2% |
| B000387 | Coppermill Compact Personal Device 2-Pack | A | Y | 80.6 | 81.7 | Seasonal naive (52w) | 66.5% | -4.6% |
| B000040 | Ashgrove Slimline Portable Power Single | A | X | 79.2 | 74.3 | Damped trend (Holt) | 68.6% | -9.1% |
| B000014 | Bellwood Pro Cleaning Supplie Bulk Case | B | X | 77.8 | 78.8 | 4-week moving average | 75.4% | -3.0% |
| B000094 | Larkspur Cordless Basic 12-Pack | B | X | 77.7 | 77.7 | 13-week moving average | 75.2% | -1.1% |
| B000213 | Rivermont Compact Camping Single | A | Y | 76.0 | 54.6 | Seasonal naive (52w) | 37.6% | -24.6% |
| B000343 | Meridian Bay Slimline Tablet 2-Pack | A | Y | 73.8 | 140.5 | Seasonal naive (52w) | 57.0% | -3.4% |
| B000147 | Ironpine Traveller Dog Food Single | B | Y | 73.2 | 87.9 | Seasonal naive (52w) | 74.9% | -9.6% |
| B000270 | Northvale Deluxe Bedding 6-Pack | A | X | 72.7 | 72.7 | 13-week moving average | 76.7% | -9.5% |
| B000221 | Stonebrook Slimline Tableware 6-Pack | A | X | 72.3 | 81.0 | Damped trend (Holt) | 56.0% | -12.5% |
| B000060 | Bellwood Cordless Toys & Treat 12-Pack | B | X | 72.2 | 72.8 | 4-week moving average | 65.6% | -2.4% |
| B000174 | Calder and Vine Pro Outdoor Play Bulk Case | B | Y | 71.2 | 130.5 | Seasonal naive (52w) | 66.1% | -27.4% |
| B000052 | Solstice Row Deluxe Dairy & Chilled 4-Pack | C | Y | 68.2 | 59.6 | Exponential smoothing | 50.6% | -13.5% |
| B000143 | Solstice Row Deluxe Writing Single | C | Y | 68.1 | 65.3 | Croston / SBA (intermittent) | 44.8% | -43.1% |
| B000254 | Solstice Row Insulated Small Appliance 2-Pack | C | X | 68.1 | 75.1 | Damped trend (Holt) | 84.1% | -0.7% |
| B000115 | Northvale Premium Team Sport Single | B | X | 66.4 | 48.8 | Exponential smoothing | 72.3% | -5.6% |
| B000201 | Coppermill Essential Cables & Adapter 2-Pack | A | Y | 65.9 | 95.8 | Seasonal naive (52w) | 75.6% | -21.6% |
| B000333 | Solstice Row Compact Cables & Adapter Single | A | Y | 65.9 | 65.9 | 13-week moving average | 64.6% | -5.9% |
| B000236 | Larkspur Deluxe Outerwear Single | C | Y | 65.4 | 116.6 | Seasonal naive (52w) | 53.9% | -26.2% |
| B000309 | Solstice Row Essential Diapering 4-Pack | C | X | 65.2 | 65.2 | 13-week moving average | 75.9% | -18.3% |
| B000354 | Solstice Row Cordless Printers & Ink Bulk Case | C | Y | 65.0 | 53.0 | Seasonal naive (52w) | 63.1% | -11.4% |
| B000261 | Northvale Compact Streaming Device Single | A | Y | 64.2 | 21.0 | Naive (last week) | 60.8% | -22.0% |
| B000162 | Ironpine Essential Oral Care 6-Pack | B | Y | 64.2 | 69.0 | Seasonal naive (52w) | 69.6% | -14.7% |
| B000299 | Solstice Row Lightweight Bedding Single | C | Y | 63.8 | 28.0 | Naive (last week) | 61.0% | -8.3% |
| B000212 | Solstice Row Everyday Basic Single | B | X | 62.7 | 59.6 | Croston / SBA (intermittent) | 76.1% | +6.5% |
| B000199 | Rivermont Studio Dairy & Chilled 4-Pack | B | Y | 62.5 | 62.5 | 13-week moving average | 66.5% | -13.1% |
| B000151 | Fenwick Insulated Nursery Single | C | Y | 62.2 | 53.6 | Croston / SBA (intermittent) | 59.4% | +4.7% |
| B000393 | Bellwood Premium Figure Single | B | Z | 62.0 | 52.0 | Naive (last week) | 47.7% | -43.8% |
| B000336 | Coppermill Slimline Bedding Single | A | X | 60.5 | 39.0 | Naive (last week) | 64.3% | -9.0% |
| B000083 | Coppermill Slimline Bedding Single | B | X | 60.0 | 78.5 | Seasonal naive (52w) | 64.9% | +24.4% |
| B000220 | Aurelia Value Figure Single | B | X | 58.5 | 75.0 | 4-week moving average | 64.1% | -13.9% |
| B000274 | Bellwood Premium Hair Care Single | B | X | 58.5 | 53.4 | Exponential smoothing | 72.9% | -13.2% |
| B000403 | Larkspur Heavy Duty Basic Single | B | Y | 57.9 | 55.4 | Croston / SBA (intermittent) | 71.6% | -15.6% |
| B000265 | Solstice Row Slimline Breakfast 4-Pack | C | X | 57.1 | 66.1 | Seasonal naive (52w) | 69.0% | +6.3% |
| B000405 | Ashgrove Essential Headphone 2-Pack | A | Y | 56.2 | 85.5 | Seasonal naive (52w) | 45.9% | -34.3% |
| B000314 | Kestrel Traveller Cables & Adapter Single | B | Y | 55.5 | 85.7 | Seasonal naive (52w) | 67.8% | -26.7% |
| B000166 | Solstice Row Essential Hair Care Single | B | Z | 55.2 | 55.2 | 13-week moving average | 31.2% | -26.4% |
| B000225 | Solstice Row Everyday Water Sport 12-Pack | A | Y | 54.6 | 54.6 | 13-week moving average | 48.2% | -20.9% |
| B000087 | Larkspur Studio Nursery 2-Pack | B | Y | 54.0 | 44.0 | Naive (last week) | 70.9% | -5.5% |
| B000069 | Solstice Row Compact Hair Care Single | C | X | 52.7 | 49.4 | Damped trend (Holt) | 70.9% | -16.7% |
| B000079 | Rivermont Value Skincare 12-Pack | C | X | 52.6 | 52.6 | 13-week moving average | 66.2% | -24.5% |
| B000367 | Bellwood Stackable Frozen Meal 2-Pack | C | Y | 52.5 | 52.5 | 13-week moving average | 64.7% | -23.2% |
| B000308 | Calder and Vine Pro Travel Gear Single | C | Y | 50.8 | 27.0 | Naive (last week) | 55.8% | -18.8% |
| B000125 | Harbourline Stackable Writing 2-Pack | C | X | 50.5 | 68.0 | Naive (last week) | 73.7% | -9.6% |
| B000294 | Bellwood Heritage Activewear 2-Pack | B | X | 49.9 | 43.7 | Croston / SBA (intermittent) | 69.0% | -6.7% |
| B000211 | Tidewater Traveller Streaming Device 4-Pack | B | Y | 49.6 | 49.4 | Exponential smoothing | 64.2% | -16.5% |
| B000013 | Calder and Vine Cordless Paper Single | C | X | 49.5 | 46.9 | Seasonal naive (52w) | 75.7% | -13.9% |
| B000407 | Kestrel Essential Outerwear Single | C | X | 49.4 | 44.7 | Damped trend (Holt) | 79.4% | -11.9% |
| B000233 | Aurelia Everyday Habitat 2-Pack | B | Y | 49.1 | 31.0 | Naive (last week) | 45.4% | +5.3% |
| B000349 | Coppermill Lightweight Headphone Single | A | X | 48.8 | 33.0 | Naive (last week) | 65.4% | -12.1% |
| B000370 | Northvale Cordless Building Set Single | B | X | 48.1 | 83.2 | Seasonal naive (52w) | 69.5% | -4.6% |
| B000390 | Coppermill Heritage Breakfast Single | C | Z | 47.8 | 50.5 | Seasonal naive (52w) | 27.2% | +17.2% |
| B000232 | Tidewater Heritage Dog Food Single | C | Y | 47.6 | 52.6 | Seasonal naive (52w) | 58.8% | -2.4% |
| B000250 | Kestrel Value Coffee & Tea 6-Pack | C | X | 47.4 | 47.4 | 13-week moving average | 71.0% | -6.7% |
| B000132 | Ironpine Studio Tablet Single | B | Y | 47.2 | 58.1 | Seasonal naive (52w) | 74.3% | -10.2% |
| B000292 | Solstice Row Heavy Duty Outdoor Play 12-Pack | B | X | 47.2 | 44.4 | Croston / SBA (intermittent) | 69.4% | -16.2% |
| B000373 | Tidewater Studio Water Sport Single | A | X | 45.5 | 45.5 | 13-week moving average | 65.5% | -12.1% |
| B000074 | Meridian Bay Pro Activewear 4-Pack | C | X | 45.4 | 60.1 | Damped trend (Holt) | 65.4% | -5.3% |
| B000238 | Larkspur Traveller Vitamin 12-Pack | B | X | 45.3 | 26.0 | Naive (last week) | 66.3% | -16.0% |
| B000062 | Meridian Bay Traveller Coffee & Tea 4-Pack | C | Y | 44.5 | 40.6 | Exponential smoothing | 64.1% | -6.3% |
| B000347 | Ashgrove Value Footwear 2-Pack | C | Z | 44.4 | 40.0 | Exponential smoothing | 44.8% | -24.8% |
| B000110 | Tidewater Everyday Vitamin 12-Pack | B | X | 44.0 | 40.7 | Croston / SBA (intermittent) | 78.8% | -6.4% |
| B000043 | Fenwick Cordless Camping 2-Pack | A | Y | 43.5 | 37.0 | Naive (last week) | 33.9% | -28.6% |
| B000016 | Coppermill Heavy Duty Feeding 12-Pack | B | X | 42.6 | 25.5 | Damped trend (Holt) | 70.9% | -3.1% |
| B000418 | Bellwood Deluxe Dog Food Single | B | Y | 42.6 | 42.6 | 13-week moving average | 42.1% | -34.2% |
| B000332 | Calder and Vine Studio Cleaning Supplie Single | B | Y | 42.1 | 53.6 | Seasonal naive (52w) | 55.8% | +19.0% |
| B000152 | Coppermill Insulated Puzzle 2-Pack | B | Y | 41.7 | 41.7 | 13-week moving average | 59.4% | -13.2% |
| B000161 | Aurelia Cordless Figure 4-Pack | B | X | 41.7 | 36.6 | Croston / SBA (intermittent) | 79.5% | -6.6% |
| B000015 | Rivermont Premium Baking 4-Pack | C | Y | 40.8 | 50.5 | 4-week moving average | 53.0% | -9.1% |
| B000356 | Calder and Vine Lightweight Bedding 2-Pack | B | X | 40.8 | 37.4 | Croston / SBA (intermittent) | 73.3% | -7.2% |
| B000140 | Bellwood Slimline Coffee & Tea 4-Pack | C | X | 40.6 | 40.6 | 13-week moving average | 82.4% | +4.5% |
| B000388 | Calder and Vine Pro Cat Food 2-Pack | B | X | 39.5 | 38.0 | Naive (last week) | 58.9% | -32.0% |
| B000092 | Harbourline Pro Team Sport Single | B | Y | 39.3 | 38.9 | Damped trend (Holt) | 39.2% | -29.4% |
| B000130 | Northvale Lightweight Baking 2-Pack | C | Y | 39.3 | 51.0 | Damped trend (Holt) | 44.9% | -11.9% |
| B000406 | Meridian Bay Lightweight Bedding 2-Pack | C | Y | 39.2 | 38.1 | Exponential smoothing | 62.4% | -3.0% |
| B000244 | Solstice Row Heavy Duty Hair Care 4-Pack | B | X | 38.8 | 35.5 | Croston / SBA (intermittent) | 71.6% | +3.7% |
| B000204 | Ashgrove Slimline Feeding 2-Pack | B | Y | 38.3 | 38.3 | 13-week moving average | 44.8% | -28.5% |
| B000063 | Larkspur Essential Cookware 12-Pack | B | X | 38.0 | 47.2 | Seasonal naive (52w) | 74.7% | -11.0% |
| B000353 | Tidewater Heritage Paper 2-Pack | C | Y | 37.8 | 45.0 | Naive (last week) | 42.3% | -57.7% |
| B000322 | Calder and Vine Slimline Accessorie Single | C | Y | 37.3 | 36.3 | Croston / SBA (intermittent) | 55.4% | +1.5% |
| B000248 | Larkspur Deluxe Puzzle 2-Pack | B | Y | 37.0 | 14.0 | Naive (last week) | 50.1% | -22.2% |
| B000231 | Ashgrove Deluxe Grooming Single | C | X | 36.6 | 23.0 | Naive (last week) | 72.1% | -12.8% |
| B000145 | Stonebrook Premium Snack Single | C | X | 36.3 | 33.0 | Naive (last week) | 65.8% | +0.2% |
| B000187 | Ashgrove Stackable Toys & Treat 4-Pack | C | X | 36.3 | 22.0 | Naive (last week) | 63.7% | -9.7% |
| B000088 | Meridian Bay Lightweight Cat Food 12-Pack | B | X | 36.1 | 39.0 | Seasonal naive (52w) | 73.7% | -12.4% |
| B000359 | Coppermill Slimline Streaming Device Single | B | Y | 36.0 | 49.0 | Seasonal naive (52w) | 72.2% | -15.9% |
| B000193 | Tidewater Insulated Small Appliance Single | B | X | 35.9 | 32.2 | Croston / SBA (intermittent) | 64.5% | -3.9% |
| B000146 | Kestrel Heavy Duty Feeding 4-Pack | B | Y | 35.8 | 38.5 | Exponential smoothing | 65.9% | -7.1% |
| B000164 | Meridian Bay Cordless Cables & Adapter 6-Pack | B | Y | 35.3 | 35.3 | 13-week moving average | 39.6% | +15.2% |
| B000198 | Northvale Slimline Cleaning Supplie Single | B | X | 34.8 | 31.3 | Croston / SBA (intermittent) | 76.9% | +1.3% |
| B000030 | Bellwood Deluxe Cat Food Single | B | X | 34.5 | 34.5 | 13-week moving average | 66.0% | -7.9% |
| B000048 | Northvale Insulated Water Sport 4-Pack | B | Y | 34.4 | 29.0 | Seasonal naive (52w) | 66.9% | -10.9% |
| B000179 | Solstice Row Heavy Duty Portable Power 4-Pack | B | Y | 34.2 | 33.0 | Naive (last week) | 64.9% | -13.0% |
| B000341 | Ashgrove Pro Camping Single | B | Z | 33.7 | 0.0 | Naive (last week) | 16.3% | +52.5% |
| B000286 | Calder and Vine Premium Outdoor Play 2-Pack | B | Y | 33.6 | 54.9 | Seasonal naive (52w) | 60.7% | -12.7% |
| B000142 | Solstice Row Premium Nursery Single | C | Y | 33.3 | 25.6 | Exponential smoothing | 45.1% | -25.7% |
| B000117 | Ashgrove Everyday Storage & Organisation Single | C | Y | 33.1 | 43.1 | Seasonal naive (52w) | 50.2% | -0.9% |
| B000361 | Coppermill Traveller Camping Bulk Case | B | Y | 33.1 | 44.0 | Naive (last week) | 63.5% | -25.0% |
| B000324 | Solstice Row Value Building Set 12-Pack | B | Z | 33.0 | 53.8 | Seasonal naive (52w) | 57.8% | -29.2% |
| B000111 | Kestrel Essential Snack 2-Pack | C | Y | 32.8 | 32.8 | 13-week moving average | 61.4% | +0.8% |
| B000218 | Tidewater Deluxe Pantry Staple 6-Pack | C | Y | 32.7 | 32.7 | 13-week moving average | 48.0% | -9.9% |
| B000365 | Calder and Vine Studio Dairy & Chilled Single | C | Y | 32.5 | 26.7 | Croston / SBA (intermittent) | 49.4% | -11.6% |
| B000020 | Bellwood Stackable Accessorie 6-Pack | B | Y | 32.4 | 32.0 | Naive (last week) | 36.0% | -55.2% |
| B000246 | Bellwood Pro Writing 6-Pack | B | Z | 31.4 | 31.4 | 13-week moving average | 35.3% | -50.0% |
| B000109 | Tidewater Cordless Dog Food Single | B | Y | 31.2 | 31.2 | 13-week moving average | 69.9% | -7.2% |
| B000029 | Solstice Row Compact Diapering 4-Pack | C | Y | 30.8 | 34.6 | Seasonal naive (52w) | 80.7% | +4.0% |
| B000101 | Stonebrook Insulated Outerwear Bulk Case | B | Y | 30.8 | 22.0 | Naive (last week) | 64.0% | +22.9% |
| B000413 | Aurelia Insulated Hair Care 12-Pack | B | Y | 30.5 | 26.0 | Croston / SBA (intermittent) | 61.4% | -8.7% |
| B000287 | Solstice Row Deluxe Cables & Adapter Single | A | X | 30.2 | 23.0 | Naive (last week) | 73.6% | -2.1% |
| B000127 | Rivermont Slimline Outerwear Bulk Case | C | Z | 29.9 | 25.7 | Exponential smoothing | 32.5% | -34.0% |
| B000123 | Fenwick Traveller Coffee & Tea Single | C | X | 29.8 | 29.8 | 13-week moving average | 62.1% | -9.0% |
| B000072 | Aurelia Insulated Toys & Treat 2-Pack | C | Y | 29.7 | 33.0 | Seasonal naive (52w) | 66.4% | +3.6% |
| B000291 | Kestrel Slimline Personal Device Single | C | X | 29.3 | 29.3 | 13-week moving average | 60.6% | +9.8% |
| B000120 | Ashgrove Premium Hair Care 2-Pack | C | X | 29.2 | 28.5 | Exponential smoothing | 61.9% | -3.7% |
| B000278 | Meridian Bay Insulated Hair Care Single | B | X | 29.2 | 18.0 | Naive (last week) | 66.4% | +7.9% |
| B000345 | Bellwood Value Storage & Organisation 6-Pack | B | Y | 29.2 | 29.2 | 13-week moving average | 59.9% | -3.3% |
| B000230 | Meridian Bay Compact Hair Care Single | C | X | 28.9 | 31.1 | Exponential smoothing | 66.5% | +11.7% |
| B000064 | Solstice Row Traveller Storage & Organisation Single | B | X | 28.8 | 28.8 | 13-week moving average | 70.6% | -9.0% |
| B000337 | Solstice Row Essential Snack 4-Pack | C | Y | 28.8 | 25.8 | Croston / SBA (intermittent) | 56.4% | +26.2% |
| B000081 | Rivermont Slimline Activewear 6-Pack | C | X | 28.8 | 20.8 | 4-week moving average | 53.3% | +23.8% |
| B000385 | Ironpine Everyday Figure 4-Pack | C | Y | 28.3 | 24.0 | Naive (last week) | 54.6% | -19.5% |
| B000105 | Bellwood Pro Figure Bulk Case | B | Y | 27.8 | 27.8 | 13-week moving average | 32.9% | -28.4% |
| B000288 | Rivermont Stackable Feeding 6-Pack | C | Y | 27.7 | 16.0 | Naive (last week) | 48.8% | -12.1% |
| B000408 | Ironpine Heritage Puzzle Single | B | Y | 27.5 | 21.2 | Croston / SBA (intermittent) | 52.5% | -19.3% |
| B000350 | Tidewater Insulated Cookware 2-Pack | B | Y | 27.3 | 28.8 | Damped trend (Holt) | 57.3% | -12.1% |
| B000208 | Coppermill Pro Basic Single | C | Y | 27.1 | 20.7 | Croston / SBA (intermittent) | 44.0% | -17.0% |
| B000419 | Northvale Traveller Dog Food 6-Pack | B | X | 27.1 | 23.2 | Croston / SBA (intermittent) | 70.2% | -6.0% |
| B000369 | Solstice Row Heritage Water Sport 4-Pack | C | Y | 26.8 | 23.4 | Croston / SBA (intermittent) | 66.8% | -13.3% |
| B000352 | Solstice Row Value Water Sport Single | B | Y | 26.4 | 8.0 | Naive (last week) | 44.5% | -36.4% |
| B000137 | Calder and Vine Heritage Streaming Device 4-Pack | A | X | 26.2 | 26.2 | 13-week moving average | 66.6% | -20.8% |
| B000396 | Ashgrove Everyday Water Sport 4-Pack | B | Y | 25.9 | 22.7 | Seasonal naive (52w) | 53.7% | -20.9% |
| B000358 | Kestrel Pro Portable Power Bulk Case | B | Y | 25.8 | 50.6 | Seasonal naive (52w) | 63.6% | -19.5% |
| B000149 | Ashgrove Insulated Oral Care 2-Pack | C | Y | 24.7 | 24.7 | 13-week moving average | 49.0% | -13.1% |
| B000203 | Ironpine Lightweight Beverage 4-Pack | C | Y | 24.5 | 35.0 | Seasonal naive (52w) | 63.1% | -21.8% |
| B000168 | Fenwick Pro Baking 2-Pack | C | Y | 24.2 | 22.2 | Croston / SBA (intermittent) | 48.6% | -10.6% |
| B000273 | Larkspur Stackable Skincare 2-Pack | C | Y | 23.7 | 5.0 | Naive (last week) | 40.3% | -40.3% |
| B000006 | Meridian Bay Premium Desk Accessorie 2-Pack | C | Y | 23.5 | 27.5 | Seasonal naive (52w) | 65.5% | -12.2% |
| B000310 | Rivermont Cordless Beverage Single | C | Y | 23.2 | 20.5 | 4-week moving average | 50.6% | +4.4% |
| B000321 | Fenwick Traveller Pantry Staple 12-Pack | C | Y | 23.2 | 23.2 | 13-week moving average | 64.6% | -14.3% |
| B000389 | Calder and Vine Compact Basic Single | C | Y | 23.1 | 23.1 | 13-week moving average | 38.6% | -14.1% |
| B000002 | Meridian Bay Studio Accessorie Single | C | X | 22.9 | 22.9 | 13-week moving average | 67.6% | -7.4% |
| B000053 | Larkspur Compact Personal Device 2-Pack | C | Y | 22.8 | 18.5 | Exponential smoothing | 45.3% | -21.2% |
| B000319 | Rivermont Heritage Basic Single | B | Y | 22.5 | 22.5 | 13-week moving average | 55.7% | -1.8% |
| B000050 | Aurelia Everyday Activewear Single | C | Y | 22.0 | 19.8 | Croston / SBA (intermittent) | 61.9% | -10.5% |
| B000033 | Fenwick Studio Footwear Single | C | Y | 21.0 | 21.0 | 13-week moving average | 43.6% | -24.0% |
Showing the 250 fastest-moving of 420 SKUs.