Revenue trend
Softening
FYTD +3.2%, YoY -21.4%. Review movers and drivers for declining demand.
Executive command center
Business Performance
An executive operating readout for revenue, profit quality, concentration risk, forecast confidence, and the next investigation path worth taking under the active business filters.
Softening revenue, elevated risk posture, and high data confidence. Prioritize 236 SKUs currently below target margin.
Showing Oct 1, 2025 – Jul 4, 2026
Current fiscal year-to-date Oct 1, 2025 to Jul 4, 2026 is compared with prior fiscal year-to-date Oct 1, 2024 to Jul 4, 2025. Comparator window: Oct 1, 2024 to Jul 4, 2025.
Window Oct 1, 2025 to Jul 4, 2026Comparison Prior fiscal year-to-datePeriod mode Fiscal year-to-dateFilters 1 activeScope EnterpriseTrust HealthyData cutoff Jul 4, 2026Last refresh Aug 15, 2026, 7:22 PMOpen trust center
Business health summary rail
Five-second executive scan
Plain-English status cards translate the current business window into operating condition, risk posture, and trust confidence before users read the deeper analysis.
Profit status
Steady
Profit is broadly steady for the selected business window.
Margin condition
Watch
Margin is 20.1% with -1.7 pts versus prior fiscal year-to-date. Keep watch on profit quality and price discipline.
Customer movement
Balanced
Customer movement is mixed with returning share 87.5%.
Risk alert
Elevated
Top 1 customer 3.5% · HHI 181 · margin-risk revenue 76.7%.
Data confidence
High
Coverage, mapping, and governed freshness currently support confident executive use.
Executive KPI command center
Strategic outcomes and operating context
Strategic KPIs stay prominent, while surrounding context explains why performance moved and where leadership should focus next.
Revenue now $8,281,387FYTD Δ$$260,424FYTD Δ%3.2%Prior fiscal year-to-date: Oct 1, 2024 to Jul 4, 2025Cost coverage: 100.0%
Revenue
$8,281,387
FYTD +3.2%
YoY -21.4%
Profit
$1,665,816
FYTD -4.8%
Cost coverage 100.0%
Margin %
20.1%
Target 26.3% · Min 19.9% · -6.2 pts vs target
Between minimum and target · 236 below-target SKUs
Revenue FYTD
+3.2%
$260,424 vs prior fiscal year-to-date
Current fiscal year-to-date Oct 1, 2025 to Jul 4, 2026 is compared with prior fiscal year-to-date Oct 1, 2024 to Jul 4, 2025.
ASP
$103.92
AOV
$1,979.30
Profit / Order
$398.14
Profit / Lb
$1.86
New customer share
Returning share
Top 1 share / HHI (customers)
3.5% / HHI 181
Margin risk
236 (76.7%)
Retention
90.3%
Logo churn
9.7%
Revenue churn
7.2%
NRR
93.9%
ARPA
$86,264
New / established ARPA
$62,696 / $89,631
Revenue basis
Gross-to-net sales reconciliation
Existing revenue, margin, AOV, growth, and forecast metrics use invoiced sales after discounts and before approved return credits. Net sales is shown separately.
Gross sales
$8,676,831
Less discounts
$395,444
Invoice sales
$8,281,387
Less approved returns
$99,843
Less related costs
$8,436.90
Net sales
$8,173,107
27 approved returns matched to orders in this scope. Discount and handling costs are explicit source fields.
Acquisition economics
What an account costs to win
FY2025 acquisition economics. CLV is the 12-month discounted gross-profit figure from the Customers page, so the ratio is a first-year measure, not the lifetime basis the 3:1 benchmark assumes.
CAC
$17,667
CLV (12-month)
$19,230
CLV:CAC
1.09×
CAC payback
11.0 mo
11 accounts won on $194,336 of marketing and acquisition selling spend. Full channel detail is on the Marketing page.
KPI deep dive
Operating scale, demand quality, pricing, and trust
Top-line finance stays in the executive scorecard above. This layer narrows the view to the supporting KPIs leaders use to judge scale, customer quality, monetization, and data confidence.
Operational scale
Orders, units, and shipped weight confirm how large the current filtered business actually is.
79,689
v 0.4% FYTD
YoY: -24.0%
896,940
v 0.9% FYTD
YoY: -24.4%
Demand and customer movement
Customer breadth, revenue per account, and movement shares show whether the window is broad-based or concentrated in a few relationships.
4,184
^ 4.4% FYTD
YoY: -20.2%
96
^ 3.2% FYTD
YoY: -1.0%
Pricing and basket quality
Basket size, realized price, and unit economics show whether growth is quality growth rather than just more activity.
$1,979.30
v 1.1% FYTD
YoY: -1.6%
$103.92
^ 3.7% FYTD
YoY: 3.3%
Trust and governance
Coverage, mapping, and governed refresh signals stay visible so leadership knows how much confidence to place in the view.
100.0%
Finance-sensitive KPIs are decision-grade
Current filtered window · data cutoff Jul 4, 2026
100.0%
Weighted metrics have strong coverage
Pack and weight diagnostics use the same scoped rows shown on the page.
0
No material mapping gap detected
Mapping counts respect the current filters and RBAC scope.
0h
Last refresh Aug 15, 2026, 7:22 PM
Data cutoff Jul 4, 2026
Executive briefing
Morning narrative
Biggest win, sharpest decline, key risk, top action, and watchouts are consolidated into one morning briefing panel.
Biggest win
$456,999
Top Region gainer
Southeast
Open detail Biggest decline
-$450,167
Top Region decline
Midwest
Open detail Key risk
236
Margin watchlist
High-revenue SKUs are under target margin.
Top action
Next
Review margin-risk SKUs
Prioritize 236 SKUs currently below target margin.
Open action What improved
- Revenue improved +$260,424 versus prior fiscal year-to-date (+3.2%).
- Strongest gainer: Southeast (+$456,999).
- New-customer share is 12.5% of active customers.
What declined
- Mix reduced revenue by -$0 versus prior fiscal year-to-date.
- Biggest decline: Midwest (-$450,167).
- Profit is down 27.7% versus prior year.
Key watchouts
- 236 SKUs are below target margin.
- Top customer concentration is 3.5% with HHI 181.
- Current fiscal year-to-date Oct 1, 2025 to Jul 4, 2026 is compared with prior fiscal year-to-date Oct 1, 2024 to Jul 4, 2025.
Business context
Cost coverage: 100.0%
$8,281,387
FYTD Δ$$260,424FYTD Δ%3.2%
Current fiscal year-to-date Oct 1, 2025 to Jul 4, 2026 is compared with prior fiscal year-to-date Oct 1, 2024 to Jul 4, 2025.
MOM revenue down $881,289: volume -871,413, mix -0.
Revenue YoY -21.4% | Profit YoY -27.7% | Margin YoY -1.7 pts
Trend and performance diagnostics
Trend workspace and commercial drivers
Use this workspace to confirm what changed over time and whether movement is price, volume, or mix led.
Trend diagnostics
Revenue baseline with diagnostic overlays
This is the core diagnostic workspace for time-series behavior, with clear controls for trading cadence, sparse windows, and overlay context.
No data for selected window or filters.
Drivers
Revenue drivers and decomposition
Price, volume, and mix are translated into business-driver language so leaders can separate pricing moves from real demand or mix shifts without misreading partial periods.
Not enough history to compute drivers.
FYTD
n/aPrior fiscal year-to-date: $956,862 -> $75,573 (Δ -$881,289, Δ -92.1%) - Prior fiscal year-to-date
| Driver | Δ $ | Share of Δ | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|
| Price | -$9,875.19 | +1.1% | ▼ |
| Volume | -$871,413 | +98.9% | ▼ |
| Mix | -$0.00 | +0.0% | ▼ |
MOM revenue down $881,289: volume -871,413, mix -0.
Same period last year
n/aSame period last year: $899,310 -> $75,573 (Δ -$823,737, Δ -91.6%) - Same period last year
| Driver | Δ $ | Share of Δ | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|
| Price | -$12,975 | +1.6% | ▼ |
| Volume | -$810,762 | +98.4% | ▼ |
| Mix | $0.00 | -0.0% | • |
YOY revenue down $823,737: volume -810,762, mix +0.
Formulas, reconciliation, and top contributor detail
Driver methodology · Grain SKU
Price: Unit-value effect at average quantity.
Volume: Quantity effect at average unit value.
Mix: Residual reconciliation term.
Formula detail unavailable for this decomposition mode.
Primary comparison top contributors
Price
No contributor breakdown available.
Volume
No contributor breakdown available.
Mix
No contributor breakdown available.
YoY top contributors
Price
No contributor breakdown available.
Volume
No contributor breakdown available.
Mix
No contributor breakdown available.
Commercial movement and risk
Top customers and SKU risk control center
Keep the highest-signal customer movement and SKU margin exposure in one workspace, with secondary product and region movement still available when needed.
Top 10 customer movers
Customer-first movement panel
Customer gainers and decliners lead this workspace by default, while product and region movement remain available from the same governed table contract.
Lead customer gainer
Redbud Pointe
$258,132
$258,132 current revenue • New.
Lead customer decliner
Willow Creek Station
-$47,581
$52,221 current revenue • -47.7%.
Customer movement readout
Customer breadth
10 up / 10 down
Redbud Pointe leads gains while Willow Creek Station leads declines.
No movement data for the selected window.
Gainers
| Name | Current | Delta $ | Delta % |
|---|---|---|---|
| $258,132 | $258,132 | New | |
| $281,409 | $190,603 | 209.9% | |
| $128,403 | $128,403 | New | |
| $140,464 | $103,815 | 283.3% | |
| $98,830 | $98,830 | New | |
| $131,489 | $81,560 | 163.3% | |
| $293,824 | $60,864 | 26.1% | |
| $254,542 | $59,933 | 30.8% | |
| $58,571 | $58,571 | New | |
| $58,465 | $58,465 | New |
Decliners
| Name | Current | Delta $ | Delta % |
|---|---|---|---|
| $0.00 | -$142,171 | Lost | |
| $0.00 | -$116,277 | Lost | |
| $0.00 | -$104,754 | Lost | |
| $125,132 | -$84,703 | -40.4% | |
| $281,283 | -$71,220 | -20.2% | |
| $120,391 | -$66,918 | -35.7% | |
| $0.00 | -$53,554 | Lost | |
| $211,954 | -$52,836 | -20.0% | |
| $0.00 | -$51,733 | Lost | |
| $52,221 | -$47,581 | -47.7% |
Top 10 SKU risk
Concentration summary and SKU margin watchlist
Customer concentration stays visible, but the main finance handoff here is the top 10 SKU margin-risk list ranked by current exposure and profit pressure.
Concentration risk
Lead SKU risk
Tablet Everyday Basics 2-Pack
-$65,246
Redstone Brands / Electronics • revenue $445,448.
Watchlist size
SKU watchlist
236
76.7% of visible revenue sits in the current top SKU margin-risk watchlist.
Profitability posture
Margin quality
23.0%
P10 16.3% • 0 SKUs below 0% margin
Top 10 SKU margin watchlist
Cost coverage: 100.0%
Weighted target 26.3% · minimum 19.9%
P10 16.3%
P50 23.0%
P90 26.9%
Below 0%: 0 | Above 50%: 0
236 margin risk items | Target 26.3% | Min 19.9% | Negative margin: 0 | Above 50% margin: 0
- Tablet Everyday Basics 2-Pack(Redstone Brands / Electronics)-$65,246Materially below minimumTarget 13.0% · Min 8.0% · -27.6 pts vs targetbelow minimum exposure · revenue $445,448
- Table Lamp Exclusive Brand 2-Pack(Grayrock Manufacturing / Home & Kitchen)-$5,986.16Materially below minimumTarget 38.0% · Min 30.0% · -49.7 pts vs targetbelow minimum exposure · revenue $51,163
- Coffee Maker Premium Label Club Pack(Northwind Consumer Products / Home & Kitchen)-$5,366.61Materially below minimumTarget 38.0% · Min 30.0% · -51.4 pts vs targetbelow minimum exposure · revenue $40,126
- Greek Yogurt Northgate Select Single(Elkhorn Partners / Dairy & Frozen)-$1,447.74Materially below minimumTarget 24.0% · Min 18.0% · -36.2 pts vs targetbelow minimum exposure · revenue $11,894
- Laundry Detergent Northgate Value Multipack(Fairmont Industries / Household Essentials)-$1,444.49Materially below minimumTarget 26.0% · Min 20.0% · -40.6 pts vs targetbelow minimum exposure · revenue $9,879.62
- Bananas Northgate Select Travel Size(Sandhill Manufacturing / Fresh & Produce)-$487.81Materially below minimumTarget 33.0% · Min 26.0% · -47.6 pts vs targetbelow minimum exposure · revenue $3,346.67
- Bottled Water National Brand 2-Pack(Silverbrook Manufacturing / Grocery)-$373.73Materially below minimumTarget 24.0% · Min 18.0% · -39.5 pts vs targetbelow minimum exposure · revenue $2,417.10
- Greek Yogurt Northgate Select Multipack(Redstone Brands / Dairy & Frozen)$22.61Materially below minimumTarget 24.0% · Min 18.0% · -22.0 pts vs targetbelow minimum exposure · revenue $1,113.26
- Whole Milk Northgate Select Value Bundle(Elkhorn Partners / Dairy & Frozen)$53.96Materially below minimumTarget 24.0% · Min 18.0% · -23.2 pts vs targetbelow minimum exposure · revenue $6,779.05
- Snack Crackers Exclusive Brand Single(Redstone Brands / Grocery)$216.33Materially below minimumTarget 24.0% · Min 18.0% · -19.7 pts vs targetbelow minimum exposure · revenue $5,078.61
Outlook and business shape
Forecast center with concentration and operating mix
Forecast quality and confidence are paired with Pareto concentration and operating rhythm so outlook stays actionable.
Forecast and outlook
Outlook with confidence and model context
A smart default revenue outlook runs on load using a current-month month-end estimate plus the best recent complete history, while confidence, validation quality, and caveats stay explicit.
Revenue outlook balances recent trend, seasonal rhythm, and forecast uncertainty with watch confidence. Current month is represented as an estimated month-end nowcast rather than raw partial actuals.
Selected model
Conservative Baseline
Filtered history is limited or unstable, so the forecast stayed on a conservative baseline. • History mode recent 6 • 3 candidate models scored
Confidence
Watch
Forecastability 30/100 • 3 validation windows • Partial month included
Forecast accuracy headline
MAPE 3.4%
SMAPE 3.3% • WAPE 3.3% • Direction 67%
History basis
9 selected
All available history • Selected Oct 1, 2025 – Jun 1, 2026 • Cutoff Jun 1, 2026
The default forecast is preparing. Use Refresh Forecast to rerun the outlook after changing metric, horizon, or partial-month treatment.
Training basis
9 months selected for training • Model window recent 6 • Seasonality 0/100 • Replaced incomplete month 2026-07 through 2026-07-04 with a protected month-end pace nowcast for training. • Available history is limited, so the forecast used the full comparable series.
Caveats and notes
- Seasonality is weak under the active filters, so the forecast leans more on recent trend than repeating annual patterns.
- Forecast quality is moderate; validate the outlook against the underlying movers and risk panels.
- Current-month nowcast uncertainty is elevated, so treat the ongoing month estimate as directional.
- Replaced incomplete month 2026-07 through 2026-07-04 with a protected month-end pace nowcast for training.
- Current month is nowcasted to month-end using validation-weighted pacing, recent business-day curves, and prior comparable periods.
Runner-up models
- Theta-Style Trend • SMAPE 4.4% • recent 24
- Robust Recent Trend • SMAPE 6.7% • recent 18
Commercial shape
Mix and Pareto concentration
Mix share and Pareto concentration stay visible as a control surface, not as a hidden appendix behind the main KPI story.
Mix (Top 10)
Pareto (Revenue share)
Top 30 by selected dimension
Operating pulse
Customer momentum and operating rhythm
Customer momentum, supplier and department mix, shipping method balance, and weekday demand shape stay visible for daily operational decisions instead of monthly-only review.
Customer momentum
Oct 1, 2025 to Jul 4, 2026
New 12 | Returning 84
Shares: New 12.5% · Returning 87.5%
New-share delta vs prior fiscal year-to-date: -87.5%
Active
Customers 96 | SKUs 320
Operational mix
Top 5 + OtherRegions
- Southeast23.3%
- Texas & Gulf21.4%
- Midwest14.2%
- Pacific11.3%
- Mountain West10.7%
- Other19.1%
Methods
- DC Ambient29.7%
- Direct Store Delivery21.6%
- DC Cold Chain18.9%
- Third Party LTL14.2%
- Cross-Dock9.5%
- Other6.0%
Suppliers
- Elkhorn Partners11.0%
- Grayrock Manufacturing10.0%
- Redstone Brands7.1%
- Silverbrook Manufacturing6.3%
- Alderwood Consumer Products4.9%
- Other20.1%
Proteins
- Electronics26.0%
- Health & Wellness15.6%
- Grocery15.2%
- Home & Kitchen10.6%
- Meat & Seafood9.0%
- Other23.6%
Weekday revenue
Best: SatNo weekday data.
Data trust and action paths
Governance confidence and next-step investigations
Trust, remediation, and module handoffs are kept in one place so governance context is always attached to action.
Data trust and remediation
Data health, governance, and next fixes
Coverage, freshness, and mapping integrity remain the trust layer for sensitive metric interpretation.
26,002 rows
Cost coverage
100.0%
Coverage is healthy for sensitive metrics.
Packs coverage
100% (26,002 / 26,002)
Weighted metrics have strong pack coverage.
Missing mapping
0
No significant mapping gaps detected.
Refresh age
0h
Age of the latest governed refresh checkpoint, not the filtered period end.
- Current period is incomplete1
Current fiscal year-to-date Oct 1, 2025 to Jul 4, 2026 is compared with prior fiscal year-to-date Oct 1, 2024 to Jul 4, 2025. Coverage and mapping integrity are currently healthy.
Action paths
Investigation and follow-up rail
Each major signal should lead to a valid module handoff, governed drilldown, or trust remediation step.
Recommended next action
Review margin-risk SKUs
Prioritize 236 SKUs currently below target margin.
Open investigation- Trend diagnostic workspaceOpen trends
- Margin-risk watchlistReview risk
- Data issue remediationOpen trust center
Executive signals
Cross-cutting signals and anomalies
Fast-scan signal cards surface anomalies, opportunities, and supporting context that deserve follow-up beyond the core narrative.
Period context
—
Current fiscal year-to-date Oct 1, 2025 to Jul 4, 2026 is compared with prior fiscal year-to-date Oct 1, 2024 to Jul 4, 2025.
Revenue vs prior window
3.2%
Current FYTD vs prior FYTD
Margin Risk Items
236
High-revenue products below target margin
Top Customer Share
3.5%
HHI 180
No insights available for the current filters.
No data for the selected window or filters.
How to use this pageRead the business in three passesConfirm the scope, scan the posture, then open the single risk or opportunity that needs an owner.
1
Set the windowUse Global Filters once; every KPI, chart, table, drilldown, and export follows it.
2
Scan the postureStart with revenue, profit, margin, customer movement, and the trust indicators.
3
Take one actionUse the briefing or risk list to open the relevant customer, product, region, or supplier page.